WTPA43 PHFO 112104
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

OVERNIGHT POSITION FIXES WERE DIFFICULT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
DATA AND WERE NOT CONCLUSIVE ON THE LOCATION OF MAKA. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO
BE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS RESULTED IN AN ADJUSTMENT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK POSITIONS AND MEANS MAKA HAS MOVED MORE
WESTWARD RATHER THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED IN THE WEST AND BEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHICH
INDICATES THAT SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. THE
SHEAR HAS BEEN HINDERING MAKA/S ABILITY TO ORGANIZE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT IN LINE WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES FROM PHFO AND PGTW...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN SAB.

MAKA IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE DYNAMICAL AIDS
ALL INDICATE THE SAME GENERAL PATH BUT VARY ON THE DEGREE OF TURN. 
THE GFS AND GFDL ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
UKMET AND ECMWF IS ON THE LEFT...AND HWRF...NOGAPS AND TVCN ARE IN
THE MIDDLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
 
SST/S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 28C THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND MAKA SHOULD MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME. THIS SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MODEL GREATLY
INCREASES THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER MAKA AND DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH
INTENSIFICATION. HWRF IS SIMILAR...WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS
INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE WARM SST/S
AND INCREASING HEAT CONTENT...WITH MAKA BECOMING A
HURRICANE/TYPHOON BY 72 HOURS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 14.5N 174.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 175.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.4N 176.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 178.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.8N 180.0E    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.6N 177.6E    65 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.9N 175.7E    70 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 23.4N 173.4E    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA