WTPA43 PHFO 111455
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

I HAVE UPGRADED DEPRESSION ONE-C TO TROPICAL STORM MAKA. CLOUD TOPS 
HAVE COOLED AND INCREASED IN AREA AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER 
ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES HAD CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 TO 2.5. 
CIMSS ADT AT 0430 UTC GAVE A CI OF 2.2...AND CIMSS AND CIRA AMSU MSW 
VALUES RANGED FROM 40 TO 46 KT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT 
IT DOES APPEAR THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. 
 
A 1027 MB HIGH LIES ABOUT 1700 MILES NORTH OF MAKA...WITH THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO A COL AROUND 26N 160E. 
MAKA SHOULD MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE 
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE MODELS SHOW A MUCH GREATER 
SPREAD. I EXPECT MAKA TO CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS 
TRACK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT AT 120 HOURS...CLOSER TO 
THE HWRF.
 
ANY GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WILL KEEP ONE-C OVER 28 DEGREE 
CELSIUS SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN IT 
WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. 
SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THERE IS MUCH STRONGER SHEAR FURTHER 
NORTH. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO 
ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WITH MAKA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH 
AT 120 HOURS. AS USUAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 14.2N 172.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.6N 173.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 175.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.8N 177.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 178.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.1N 178.6E    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 20.1N 176.7E    60 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 22.4N 174.5E    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON