WTPA43 PHFO 110917 TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009 1100 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...CLOUD TOPS AROUND ONE-C HAVE COOLED BUT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SATELLITE FIXES AGREED PRETTY WELL...WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES 2.0 TO 2.5. SINCE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS NO SIGNS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...I HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT. A 1026 MB HIGH LIES ABOUT 1600 MILES NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO A COL AROUND 27N 163E. ONE-C SHOULD MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE MODELS SHOW A MUCH GREATER SPREAD. I EXPECT ONE-C TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING FAR TO THE NORTH. I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS HWRF. ANY GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WILL KEEP ONE-C OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE SHEAR FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATICAL. SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK BUT THERE IS MUCH STRONGER SHEAR FURTHER NORTH. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SHEAR WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO START WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. I HAVE FORECAST SLOWER INTENSIFICATION THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE THE SYSTEM PEAKING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS USUAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.8N 171.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.2N 172.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 174.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.4N 176.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 16.1N 178.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.5N 179.1E 55 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 177.1E 60 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 21.7N 175.6E 55 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON