WTPA42 PHFO 111449
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

FELICIA REMAINS A LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED FAR
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF FELICIA FOR OVER 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER TIMELY OVERPASS...THIS TIME AN ASCT OVERPASS...SHOWS THAT
AT AROUND 1000 UTC THERE WERE NO 35 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FELICIA. FINALLY...PHFO CAME IN WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 1.5 OR
25 KT WHILE SAB SAYS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIABLE.
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...FELICIA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KT.
 
CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES TO THE WEST...270 DEGREES...AT 9 KT. SINCE
FELICIA IS A LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM...ITS COURSE IS BEING DICTATED BY THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE...TAKING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A RELATIVELY COMPACT
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE ENVELOPE SPREADS BEYOND 24
HOURS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF AIDES AGREE IN TURNING THE EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE TURN WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
THE DOWNWARD TRENDING INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT
FELICIA WILL REMAIN IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE LATEST UW-CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR WAS OVER 35 KT OUT OF
THE WEST...WHICH IF MAINTAINED WILL EASILY PROMOTE THE CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF FELICIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
FELICIA TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.  

ALTHOUGH FELICIA IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR OAHU AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY INCLUDING MOLOKAI...
LANAI...MAUI AND KAHOOLAWE REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS IS A PRECAUTION
SHOULD FELICIA FOR SOME UNEXPECTED REASON INCREASE IN STRENGTH. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 20.9N 154.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 20.9N 155.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 21.0N 157.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 21.2N 159.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 21.4N 161.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 22.4N 164.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG