WTPA42 PHFO 110859
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
1100 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

FELICIA CONSISTS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A TIMELY QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE. THE AREA OF THE 35 KT WINDS HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS OVERPASS...INDICATING A CONTINUED
WEAKENING TREND. A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO AT 0530 UTC 
CALLED FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT WINDS. HAVE KEPT FELICIA AS A TROPICAL
STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE...BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.

CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES TO THE WEST...270 DECREES...AT 9 KT. THE
COURSE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE...TAKING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A RELATIVELY COMPACT
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE ENVELOPE SPREADS BEYOND 36
HOURS...BUT MOST AIDES AGREE IN TURNING THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO
THE RIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TURN
WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
 
THE DOWNWARD TRENDING INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT
FELICIA IS IN AN UNFRIENDLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE LATEST UW-CIMMS
VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE WAS ABOUT 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST...WHICH IS
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY INTENSIFICATION...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER
SSTS AHEAD OF FELICIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
FELICIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FELICIA MAY
UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN FORECAST IF THE CIRCULATION SPINS
DOWN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 20.9N 153.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 21.1N 156.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 21.3N 158.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N 160.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 22.2N 163.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 23.6N 167.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z 25.4N 170.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG