WTPA42 PHFO 110244
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
WELL REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION THAT
REMAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30 KT
ACCORDING TO THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ESTIMATE. SINCE NO FURTHER AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS INTO FELICIA ARE SCHEDULED...WE WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...THAT SHOULD OCCUR AT ABOUT
0440 UTC TONIGHT...TO CONFIRM IF FELICIA IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CURRENT MOTION OF 270 DEGREES
AT 9 KT. SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM...ITS MOTION
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BRING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE STATE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
LITTLE VARIATION IN THE ALONG TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48
HOURS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. 
THE MODELS FORECAST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO BEND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER PASSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SUPPORT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SHEAR... WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS
AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND 48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT
FELICIA WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FELICIA
MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
CIRCULATION SPINS DOWN FASTER AND NO DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 20.9N 152.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.9N 153.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 21.0N 155.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 21.2N 157.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 21.4N 159.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 21.9N 163.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 23.2N 166.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z 24.9N 169.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB