WTPA42 PHFO 102055
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 10 2009

DESPITE APPEARANCES TO THE CONTRARY...FELICIA IS CURRENTLY STILL A
TROPICAL STORM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT ACCORDING TO THE 1800 UTC UW/CIMSS ESTIMATE. THE LATEST
DATA FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...IN ADDITION TO DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 1550 UTC...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT
CONTINUE OVER A BROAD AREA IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF FELICIA.
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX IN THE SYSTEM AT 1857 UTC INDICATED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 1007 MB. BOTH THE SFMR AND QUIKSCAT
INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES ALONG WITH LOOPS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORT A CURRENT MOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. SINCE THE
TROPICAL STORM IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM...ITS MOTION WILL PRIMARILY BE
CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BRING
FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE STATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE VARIATION IN THE ALONG
TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.  THE MODELS FORECAST THE
EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO BEND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER PASSING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SUPPORT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SHEAR... WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS
AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND 48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT
FELICIA WILL ONLY REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH 24
HOURS AND WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FELICIA MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE CIRCULATION SPINS DOWN FASTER AND NO DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 20.9N 151.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.9N 152.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 154.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 21.1N 156.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 21.2N 158.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 22.0N 162.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 23.3N 166.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1800Z 24.7N 169.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB