WTPA42 PHFO 082102
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

THE EYE HAS BEEN LESS DISCERNIBLE IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE
ABOUT 1330 UTC...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE AMORPHOUS...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPERIENCING NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS YET.  THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO FELICIA THIS MORNING YIELDED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 981 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB OF 86
KT...WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 77
KT...AND A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED RETRIEVAL OF 66 KT.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS.  THE CURRENT AIR
FORCE MISSION WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A
SECOND MISSION HEADING OUT LATER THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A
THIRD AND FINAL NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT.  WE GREATLY APPRECIATE THE WORK OF THE AIR FORCE AND
NOAA AIRCRAFT CREWS IN PROVIDING THESE IMPORTANT DATA.
 
THE LATEST SUITE OF TRACK MODEL RUNS...WHICH HAD THE BENEFIT OF DATA
FROM THE G-IV MISSION THAT CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE HURRICANE LAST
NIGHT...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FELICIA HEADING
WESTWARD TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY PAST HAWAII DURING THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS ON THE EXACT LATITUDE AT WHICH FELICIA
WILL MOVE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE
CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS LITTLE CHANGE.

FELICIA IS OVER THE COLDEST WATERS IT HAS YET EXPERIENCED...BUT FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE UNDERLYING OCEAN
GETS ONLY GRADUALLY WARMER...SO A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN
LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NORTH OF
ABOUT 20N...WHICH COULD INDUCE EVEN FASTER WEAKENING ESPECIALLY IF
FELICIA MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER FELICIA WILL
REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM...A DEPRESSION...OR
HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 19.8N 142.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.1N 144.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.1N 146.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 149.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 20.0N 152.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N 158.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N 163.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     13/1800Z 20.5N 169.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB