WTPA42 PHFO 262040
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
1100 AM HST MON OCT 26 2009

THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE MORNING REVEALED AN ELLIPTICAL LLCC
THAT IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. THE REMAINING DEEP 
CONVECTION IS MORE THAN 3/4 OF A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE 1700 UTC UW/CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 29 KNOTS...AND THE AVERAGE OF THE FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC WAS 2.2. THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NEKI/S TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS WINDING DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY OVER SUB-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS APPROACHING
A SHARP GRADIENT IN SST. MODERATE SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS LIKELY GOING
TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES NORTH. FINALLY...A STRONG
AUTUMN COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NEKI FROM THE WEST. NEKI WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP SPEED IN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 28.1N 165.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 30.7N 165.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 35.7N 163.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0600Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD