WTPA42 PHFO 261445
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
500 AM HST MON OCT 26 2009

LOCATING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...WAS A BIT TRICKY
THIS TIME AROUND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE ATTENDANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WHILE THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. SO...RATHER THAN BEING PARTIALLY UNDER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AS IT HAS BEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE...THE
LLCC NOW LOOKS TO BE AN EVER-INCREASING DISTANCE NORTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE
IMAGES TO TELL WITH CERTAINTY IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE.

ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN WITH CI VALUES OF 2.5 WITH NO CHANGE
IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE THREE POSITION ESTIMATES
WERE CLOSELY GROUPED AS WELL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ESTIMATED INTENSITIES...AND IS VALIDATED
BY A RESENT ASCAT PASS. 

NEKI IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AND INTENSIFYING MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE LOW AND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...
PLACING NEKI IN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS. THE
FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH
THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS NEKI GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGE LOW.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS NEKI AT 35 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FORECASTS ARE WITHIN 5 KT OF TVCN AND HWFI THROUGH
36 HOURS. NEKI IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 26.8N 164.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 29.3N 164.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 35.0N 162.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 44.0N 157.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG