WTPA42 PHFO 240257 TCDCP2 TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 500 PM HST FRI OCT 23 2009 A COUPLE OF BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF NEKI DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB ALL RESPONDED BY INCREASING BY 0.5. THE CURRENT INTENSITY CONSENSUS REMAINED 3.5...AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 55 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. NEKI IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C AND FIGHTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS NEKI OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 26C FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...BUT SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...BUT BY THEN THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE FORECAST INTENSITY THUS MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE THAT BY DAYS 3 AND 4...NEKI WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SLOW 025/4. NEKI CONTINUES TO BE IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW...HAVING BEEN BYPASSED BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHEAST MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEKI SHOULD PICK UP SPEED BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS A MUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LOW BEGINS TO ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF NEKI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.4N 165.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.0N 165.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.0N 164.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 164.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 27.0N 163.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 161.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 28/0000Z 41.0N 156.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD