WTPA41 PHFO 030845 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 02 2009 LANA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER AS OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC MONDAY...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM NO STRONGER THAN DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CPHC HAD TO RELY ON MET TO DERIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 2.0...WHILE JTWC JUDGED THIS SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT LANA IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WHILE SCATTERED TO SPOTTY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FLY ACROSS THE CENTER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH THESE WINDS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LANA REMAINS IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS RIDGE AS LANA MOVES WESTWARD...KEEPING LANA WELL WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERLY TRADE WIND BELT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...LYING JUST SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF CLOSELY GROUPED MODEL CONSENSUS. SYSTEM MOTION REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDES. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BETRAY THE PRESENCE OF DEBILITATING SHEAR. UW-CIMMS OUTPUT SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT 26 KT ACROSS LANA...WHILE SHIPS INITIALIZES AT 34 KT FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. SHIPS FORECASTS SHEAR TO REMAIN CHIEFLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS LOVE SHEAR...SO CONVECTION MAY OCCASIONALLY FLARE NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE...BUT WITH SHEAR THIS STRONG LANA IS UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LANA TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.5N 162.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 164.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.2N 167.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 170.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 173.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER POWELL