WTPA41 PHFO 030245
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062009
500 PM HST SUN AUG 02 2009

LANA IS PRACTICALLY VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THUS LANA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 
DEPRESSION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FINAL T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 
2.0 TO 3.0 WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LANA CONSISTS OF A SMALL LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD SWIRL. THE PAST COUPLE OF IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL 
SWIRL IS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE IS 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH THESE WINDS LIKELY CONFINED 
TO THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. 
 
LANA REMAINS IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...KEEPING LANA
WELL WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERLY TRADE WIND BELT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS CLOSELY
GROUPED OVERALL. FORWARD MOTION REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDES AND IS AN EXTENSION OF THE OLD TRACK.
 
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE 
LATEST UW-CIMSS OUTPUT SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTIMATED TO BE 
ABOUT 25 KT IN THE VICINITY OF LANA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT 
ANY CHANCE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. 
WITH LANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LANA 
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR POSSIBLY SOONER. THIS 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 14.5N 160.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.7N 163.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N 166.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.4N 169.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 15.7N 171.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 16.3N 177.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 16.9N 176.7E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N 171.3E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE