WTPA41 PHFO 292111
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022009
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN APPEARANCE OF TWO-C....WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
OF THE ESTIMATED CIRCULATION CENTER. A 1742Z QUIKSCAT PASS REPORTS
THAT TWO-C HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.
SUBJECTIVE  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM JTWC SAB AND PHFO RANGE
FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TWO-C WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF
THE ABOVE.

TWO-C/S COURSE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285/08KT. THE SYSTEM...WHICH
IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TO ITS NORTH...SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS COURSE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...
TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO EROSION FROM ABOVE BY A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MID-
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEYOND 48 HOURS...TWO-C IS FORECAST TO TURN
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE TROUGH TO A POSITION NORTH OF TWO-C. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS AGREE
ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT VARY GREATLY IN THE TRACK. HAVE STUCK WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER ON DAYS 4 AND
5.  
 
LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS OUT OF UW-CIMMS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS TWO-C. THIS
SEEMS A BIT ODD CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED ABOVE TWO-C.
WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE ESTIMATED SHEAR IS CORRECT...BY STICKING
WITH THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS NO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TWO-C
AFTER 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. AM NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS
EITHER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF TWO-C.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 14.7N 179.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 179.0E    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N 177.3E    35 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.1N 176.0E    35 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.9N 175.1E    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N 175.0E    35 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 23.0N 177.0E    35 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 29.0N 179.2E    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG