WTPA41 PHFO 291456 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022009 500 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2009 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS PERSISTED...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ITS SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS NOT IMPROVED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE ESTIMATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS WERE IN EXCESS OF 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE OUTFLOW ALOFT DENOTED BY THE CIRRUS WAS ALSO INDICATIVE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TWO-C WAS ABOUT 12 KT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. THEREFORE...TWO-C/S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. TWO-C CONTINUES OVER THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THERE HAS BEEN CONFLICTING INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE LLCC. MOST FIX AGENCIES APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING A CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER...LOOPS OF MTSAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM LAST EVENING...A QUIKSCAT SWATH AROUND 0630 UTC AND A 0917 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LLCC WAS DISPLACED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST OF MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. THE PRESENT MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR 270/6. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG LATITUDE 16N. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TWO-C MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BREAK IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE. THEREFORE...TWO-C IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE DATELINE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OF TWO-C BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS AT THAT TIME. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND SHIFT TO THE LEFT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION BY DAY 2...WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE. THE GUIDANCE NOW STRONGLY SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AN ACCELERATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST FROM DAY 4 TO 5...SO HAVE MOVED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FASTER AT THAT TIME. NOTE THAT EVEN IF TWO-C EVENTUALLY BECOMES A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC...THE BAMS AND BAMM INDICATE THE RECURVATURE WILL STILL OCCUR BY DAY 3 OR 4. TWO-C REMAINS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. THE LATEST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM CIRA INDICATES THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO OVER RELATIVELY DEEP WARM WATER. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TWO-C APPEARS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME... TWO-C IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY 5. NOTE THAT THE GFDL MODEL HINTS TWO-C MAY ACTUALLY INTENSIFY AFTER RECURVATURE. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.5N 179.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 179.4E 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.2N 177.6E 35 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 175.9E 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.6N 174.9E 35 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.2N 174.2E 35 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.2N 175.2E 35 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.8N 176.4E 35 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON