WTPA41 PHFO 290929 CCA TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022009 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES OVER THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE MTSAT INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. THEREFORE...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER AT THIS TIME. MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0606 UTC AMSU AND 0625 UTC SSMI PASSES APPEAR TO INDICATE THE LLCC MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE 0600 UTC POSITION USED FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TWO-C WAS ABOUT 8 KT FROM DUE SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARED TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. NOTE THAT BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGES APPEAR TO HAVE A TRANSIENT HOLE IN THE IMAGERY THAT IS NORTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL LLCC. DESPITE THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF TWO-C/S CENTER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT IS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. DEEP CONVECTION WITH CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS IN EXCESS OF 50 THOUSAND FEET CONTINUES THIS EVENING. THE OUTFLOW ALOFT DENOTED BY THE CIRRUS WAS ALSO INDICATIVE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM. WITH THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 2.0. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE PRESENT MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR 280/6. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS A BREAK IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TWO-C MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRANSLATION SPEED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE DATELINE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OF TWO-C BY DAY 2 OR 3. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE LATEST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...WHICH WAS NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AGAIN...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS PRESUMES THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO QUICKLY RECURVE. TWO-C REMAINS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. THE LATEST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM CIRA INDICATES THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO OVER RELATIVELY DEEP WARM WATER. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TWO-C IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...WE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4...BUT KEPT THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM ON DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 15.0N 178.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 15.1N 179.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 15.4N 179.1E 35 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.8N 177.7E 40 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 176.2E 40 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 17.9N 174.7E 35 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 174.7E 35 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.3N 175.7E 35 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON