FOPA15 PHFO 240246 PWSCP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 2 2 2 TROP DEPRESSION 3 4 8 6 10 13 16 TROPICAL STORM 92 77 68 57 57 54 56 HURRICANE 6 20 23 36 32 31 26 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 17 20 28 25 25 21 HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 6 4 4 4 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 51 31(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 145W 50 3 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 145W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) 3(30) 1(31) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 9(27) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) $$ FORECASTER WROE