FOPA12 PHFO 100845 PWSCP2 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009 0900 UTC MON AUG 10 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 6 14 19 34 42 50 TROP DEPRESSION 15 47 46 42 39 37 34 TROPICAL STORM 84 46 38 36 25 20 15 HURRICANE 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HILO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON