FOPA12 PHFO 100248 PWSCP2 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 13 18 31 40 49 TROP DEPRESSION 15 45 44 41 41 37 34 TROPICAL STORM 84 48 40 38 26 22 16 HURRICANE 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HILO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) 1(15) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA