FOPA12 PHFO 092049 PWSCP2 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 11 23 30 38 48 TROP DEPRESSION 14 43 43 44 40 38 34 TROPICAL STORM 84 50 43 31 28 23 17 HURRICANE 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HILO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) 1(13) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER POWELL/KNABB