FOPA12 PHFO 090258 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 5 21 30 31 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 9 26 39 39 36 TROPICAL STORM 40 65 68 59 37 29 31 HURRICANE 60 33 22 10 3 2 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 29 18 8 3 2 2 HUR CAT 2 3 3 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 145W 50 47 5(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 145W 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) X(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER KNABB/R BALLARD