FOPA12 PHFO 082321 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009 2100 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 8 28 29 38 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 15 34 40 38 37 TROPICAL STORM 40 65 69 51 30 31 24 HURRICANE 60 33 15 7 3 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 29 13 6 2 2 1 HUR CAT 2 3 3 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 63 31(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 145W 50 8 46(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 145W 64 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KNABB