FOPA12 PHFO 230900 PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 8 27 NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 3 7 26 40 NA TROPICAL STORM 6 36 50 59 56 32 NA HURRICANE 94 64 47 33 10 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 82 53 39 27 9 2 NA HUR CAT 2 11 10 7 5 1 X NA HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 160W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 22(32) 3(35) X(35) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51001 34 9 10(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 87 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 42 11(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MARO REEF 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NIHOA 34 7 7(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER TANABE