FOPA12 PHFO 230236 PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 8 20 30 TROP DEPRESSION X X 3 7 27 35 35 TROPICAL STORM 3 20 51 59 55 40 32 HURRICANE 97 80 46 33 10 5 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 67 61 37 26 9 4 2 HUR CAT 2 27 15 6 5 1 X X HUR CAT 3 3 4 2 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 75KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 160W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 1(24) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51001 34 12 8(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 92 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 58 5(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 20 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MARO REEF 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NIHOA 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BURKE