FOPA12 PHFO 222057 CCA PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 3 16 32 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 4 16 33 36 TROPICAL STORM 1 11 27 51 60 46 30 HURRICANE 99 89 72 44 21 6 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 38 56 50 34 17 5 2 HUR CAT 2 55 25 17 7 3 1 X HUR CAT 3 6 7 5 3 1 X X HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 75KT 65KT 55KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NIIHAU 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 6(42) X(42) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51001 34 3 10(13) 14(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) BUOY 51001 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 38 44(82) 6(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 2 36(38) 14(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X 16(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MARO REEF 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NIHOA 34 3 8(11) 8(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BURKE