FOPA12 PHFO 221450 PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 8 36 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 2 9 26 37 TROPICAL STORM X 1 12 35 53 53 26 HURRICANE 99 99 88 64 37 13 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 18 44 41 29 11 1 HUR CAT 2 33 44 29 16 6 1 X HUR CAT 3 59 32 13 6 2 X X HUR CAT 4 5 5 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 95KT 85KT 75KT 65KT 50KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LIHUE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NIIHAU 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 160W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) 25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 13(48) 1(49) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) BUOY 51001 34 4 32(36) 18(54) 3(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) BUOY 51001 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BUOY 51001 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 21 40(61) 6(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 1 16(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NIHOA 34 4 22(26) 13(39) 4(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) NIHOA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NIHOA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER POWELL