FOPA12 PHFO 211445 PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 5 TROPICAL STORM X 1 1 1 7 23 45 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 93 76 49 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 7 18 10 9 26 38 33 HUR CAT 2 58 44 26 20 28 22 11 HUR CAT 3 33 32 45 41 28 13 4 HUR CAT 4 3 5 16 24 9 3 1 HUR CAT 5 X X 2 4 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 95KT 105KT 110KT 100KT 90KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 20(38) 21(59) 5(64) 1(65) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 1(23) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) JOHNSTON ISL 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON