FOPA12 PHFO 210853 PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 5 TROPICAL STORM 1 1 1 1 7 23 45 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 93 76 49 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 38 17 10 9 26 38 33 HUR CAT 2 55 44 25 20 28 21 11 HUR CAT 3 6 33 46 41 28 13 4 HUR CAT 4 1 5 17 24 10 3 1 HUR CAT 5 X X 2 4 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 95KT 105KT 110KT 100KT 90KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 19(45) 7(52) 2(54) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) JOHNSTON ISL 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) 20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON