FOPA12 PHFO 210245 PWSCP2 HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 5 TROPICAL STORM 7 11 6 5 10 21 44 HURRICANE 93 89 94 95 90 78 51 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 81 55 33 26 31 36 33 HUR CAT 2 11 26 35 31 28 24 12 HUR CAT 3 2 7 21 28 24 15 4 HUR CAT 4 X 1 4 8 6 4 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 80KT 90KT 95KT 95KT 90KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 8(31) 3(34) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JOHNSTON ISL 34 2 7( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 4(23) 1(24) 1(25) JOHNSTON ISL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER WROE