FOPA12 PHFO 201445 PWSCP2 TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X X TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X X 1 TROPICAL STORM 40 19 10 5 3 11 23 HURRICANE 60 81 90 95 97 89 76 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 61 42 26 19 29 36 HUR CAT 2 3 16 31 31 26 28 22 HUR CAT 3 1 4 15 29 35 25 14 HUR CAT 4 X X 3 8 14 7 3 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 2 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 105KT 100KT 95KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JOHNSTON ISL 34 1 6( 7) 19(26) 9(35) 8(43) 2(45) X(45) JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) 20N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON