FOPA12 PHFO 192045 PWSCP2 TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 X X X X X TROP DEPRESSION 14 8 2 1 1 1 2 TROPICAL STORM 84 80 48 28 18 18 33 HURRICANE 2 12 50 71 81 82 65 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 40 43 39 34 37 HUR CAT 2 X 1 7 19 24 26 18 HUR CAT 3 X X 3 8 14 17 9 HUR CAT 4 X X X 2 3 4 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 65KT 75KT 85KT 90KT 85KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 160W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 160W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 22(32) 12(44) 4(48) JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 3(17) JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 20N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA