WTPA41 PHFO 090300
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY OF KIKA HAS SHOWN A STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE MORNING.
THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED SINCE THE 200
PM HST FIXES. THE 200 PM FIXES WERE MORE CONSISENT THAN THE 800 AM
FIXES. PHFO HAD THE SYSTEM AT 2.0/2.5...JTWC HAD THE SYSTEM AT
1.5/2.0 AND SAB HAD THE SYSTEM AT 2.0/2.0. THE POSITIONS WERE ALSO
PRETTY CLOSE. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT IN LINE
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SATELLITE FIXES. 

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/12KT REMAINS UNCHANGED SINCE MORNING.
DEEP RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF WEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
AND WE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK TO KEEP IT IN
LINE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

KIKA BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN 800 AM AND 200 PM. SINCE 200 PM
THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED EVEN FURTHER. THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS
KIKA MOVING OVER COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE SST
DOWN TO 26.5C IN THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT THE SST WARMS
SLIGHTLY...REACHING 27.0C AT THE 96 HOUR POINT. EASTERLY SHEAR OF
10 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS THE
SHEAR SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES. DESPITE THE
MARGINALLY LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
FAVORS INTENSIFICATION THROUGH AT LEAST 60 HOURS. THE CURRENT SIGNS
OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO FAVOR INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER 60 HOURS WARMER WATER MAY ALLOW CONTINUED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z  9.9N 155.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 10.2N 156.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 10.6N 159.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 10.9N 161.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 11.4N 164.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 12.2N 169.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 12.9N 174.6W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 13.2N 180.0E    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON