WTPA41 PHFO 082105
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2008

THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE MORNING REVEALED AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WELL SOUTH OF EARLIER FIXES.
WE RELOCATED THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE VISIBLE DATA. THE SATELLITE
FIXES WERE WIDELY SCATTERED IN LOCATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ALSO
VARIED CONSIDERABLE..FROM 1.0 TO 2.5...BUT THE DVORAK RULES KEPT
THE CURRENT INTENSITIES MORE CONSISTENT. PHFO HAD THE SYSTEM AT
9.8N 153.0W WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 2.5...JTWC HAD THE SYSTEM
AT 10.0N 154.0W WITH A CI OF 2.0 AND SAB HAD THE SYSTEM AT 12.0N
154.3N WITH A CI OF 2.0. THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER IS
AN INDICATION THAT KIKA IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. WE HAVE
DROPPED THE INTENSITY TO 30 KT AND DOWNGRADED KIKA TO A DEPRESSION.

INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN PROBLEMATICAL DUE TO THE RELOCATION. BASED
ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 08/0400UTC AND 08/1600UTC IT APPEARS
THAT KIKA TOOK A SHARP SOUTHWARD TURN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200UTC.
SINCE THEN IT LOOKS AS IF KIKA HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF WEST AGAIN SO OUR INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN SET AT 280/12KT. DEEP
RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF WEST. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT DUE TO THE
RELOCATION OF THE 08/1800UTC POSITION AND FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN
INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED A BIT...PARTLY BECAUSE THE TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WESTERLY SHEAR DEVELOPING AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...KIKA IS
SO SMALL AND POORLY ORGANIZED THAT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY
EVEN IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE. SO WE HAVE KEPT THE
INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
FURTHER AFTER THAT AS SHEAR INCREASES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z  9.7N 154.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z  9.8N 155.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 10.0N 158.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 10.3N 160.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 10.8N 162.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 11.6N 167.8W    30 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 12.1N 173.6W    25 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 13.0N 180.0E    20 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON