WTPA41 PHFO 081454 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2008 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM SAB AND PHFO REMAIN AT 2.5...OR 35 KT... WHILE THE FINAL T NUMBERS WERE DOWN TO 2.0...OR 30 KT. THE JTWC ANALYSIS CAME IN AT 1.5...OR 25 KT. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INHIBIT OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF KIKA AND CREATE APPROXIMATELY 10 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACCORDING TO RECENT CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY RELAX TODAY... THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11 AS KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE DEEP LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP KIKA ON A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMIC AIDS. VARYING WIND SHEAR AND SST TRENDS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SST VALUES WILL FALL TO 26C WITH MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES INDICATED BY A CIRA ANALYSIS ALONG THE TRACK. IN 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A WARMER SEA SURFACE...BUT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ACT TO WEAKEN KIKA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 11.3N 153.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 11.4N 155.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 11.5N 157.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 11.6N 160.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 11.9N 163.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 12.6N 168.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 13.4N 174.3W 40 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 179.6W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE