WTPA41 PHFO 080853
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT AS KIKA HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH DVORAK CI ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND SAB. INITIAL MOTION OF 275/11
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY DUE WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE.
 
KIKA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT BEYOND THAT THE
TRACK WAS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH SUGGEST STRONG AND DEEP RIDGING WILL
MAINTAIN A NEAR DUE WEST MOTION. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF
KIKA ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL ON MONDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SST TRENDS VARYING TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. KIKA IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER WARM WATERS WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 27C...BUT CIMSS
ANALYSES REVEAL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 10 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH
HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CREATING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SST VALUES WILL FALL
TO A MARGINAL 26C DURING THIS TIME. THUS...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE HELD TO 45 KT DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72
HOURS...SST VALUES WARM ABOVE 27C...BUT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL CREATE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
KIKA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 11.4N 152.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 11.6N 154.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 11.8N 156.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 12.0N 159.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 12.2N 162.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 12.7N 167.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 13.6N 172.8W    40 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 13.6N 177.8W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE