WTPA41 PHFO 080234
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008

DVORAK ANALYSES FROM THE CPHC...JTWC AND SAB HAVE SHOWN LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK
ANALYSIS REMAINS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BIT OF
WEAKENING AT 1.5/2.0 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS SHOWED DEVELOPMENT AT
2.5/2.5. THE SATELLITE FIXES WERE BASED ON IMAGERY 3 TO 3-1/2 HOURS
PRIOR TO THIS BULLETIN. OVER THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED
AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
 
COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN THE GUIDANCE FROM 6 HOURS AGO. WE HAVE CHANGED THE
TRACK VERY LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...KEEPING THE TRACK IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK. THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START
WEAKENING. THIS IS THE SAME INTENSITY TREND WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING ON OUR LAST COUPLE OF FORECASTS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 11.3N 151.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 11.5N 153.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 11.8N 155.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 12.1N 158.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 12.5N 160.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 13.8N 166.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 15.0N 171.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 175.6W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON