WTPA41 PHFO 072052
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS...AND IN FACT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC
ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.5 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.0. WE HAVE KEPT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AND THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THE FORWARD
MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 12 KT.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED. WE HAVE CHANGED THE TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

KIKA WILL REMAIN OVER 27C WATER WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 96 HOURS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND
96 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER
WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START WEAKENING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
MUCH THE SAME SO THERE HAS BEEN NO NEED TO CHANGE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 11.1N 149.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 11.3N 151.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 11.6N 154.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 11.8N 156.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 12.2N 159.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 13.3N 164.4W    50 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 14.6N 169.3W    50 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 15.4N 174.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON