WTPA41 PHFO 071509 CCA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
509 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AS
LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 10 KTS...BASED
ON THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS. THIS SHEAR RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM PHFO...JTWC...AND SAB WERE ALL UNCHANGED FROM
SIX HOURS PRIOR AT 2.5...OR 35 KT. THUS...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT.

KIKA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...285/07...ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF RIDGING THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF KIKA ALONG 152W HAS
ALLOWED A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT KIKA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS MOTION IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS CREATED WITHOUT THE
UKMET-EGRR...WHICH WAS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS...ALLOWING KIKA TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK AND TAKING THE CENTER OF KIKA A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF JOHNSTON ATOLL ON MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF KIKA AS IT MOVES OVER A SUFFICIENTLY
WARM SEA SURFACE AROUND 27C WITH CONTINUED MODEST SHEAR. THE WEAK
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX BEYOND 36 HOURS...AND THE MAX WINDS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD TO 50 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASE
BEYOND 96 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND HINDER
INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 10.7N 148.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 10.8N 150.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 10.9N 152.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 11.0N 155.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 11.2N 157.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 12.3N 163.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 13.3N 167.8W    50 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 14.0N 172.7W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER WROE/HOUSTON