WTPA41 PHFO 120235
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008

THE CONVECTION HANGING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA THROUGH THE
MORNING HAS WEAKENED BOTH IN SCOPE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ALLOWED FOR AN EASIER 00Z POSITION FIX
NEAR 10.8N AND 170.3W. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE 18Z AND 12Z
POSITIONS WERE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WERE REBESTED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. JTWC CONSIDERS KIKA TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY WHILE PHFO AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO IMPACT KIKA AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS KIKA FLATTENING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE DROPPED TO 25 KT. 
 
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TAKING EFFECT AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NOW WEAKENS KIKA INTO A REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT OR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS SHIFT RESULTS IN A
NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID LEVELS THROUGH 72 HOURS WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR MUCH IF ANY DISPLACEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 10.8N 170.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 10.8N 172.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 10.9N 175.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 178.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 11.0N 179.1E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 11.2N 173.2E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 11.4N 169.2E     0 KT...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER TANABE