WTPA41 PHFO 112043
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2008

THE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKA OVERNIGHT HAS 
PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
JTWC...PHFO...AND SAB REMAIN AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CIRA 
MULTIPLATFORM TC WIND ANALYSIS.  UW/CIMMS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE 
HIGH END AT 35 KT...WHICH CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE 
OF THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KIKA WILL 
REMAIN AT 30 KT IN CONSIDERATION OF THE UW/CIMMS ESTIMATE AND THE 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION.

TRACK VERIFICATION THUS FAR REVEALS A NORTHWARD OR RIGHT OF TRACK 
BIAS IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DUE IN PART TO 
THE PROJECTED INTENSIFICATION WHICH HAS NOT PLAYED OUT. FOR ALONG 
TRACK ERRORS...DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST...WHILE 
PERSISTENCE/CLIMO GUIDANCE IS ON THE SLOW SIDE BUT DOING BETTER. THE 
18Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 
HOURS...WITH THE HWRF...TVCN...AND EMXI EVEN SUGGESTING A SOUTHWARD 
DISPLACEMENT AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY 
PERIOD...EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID 
LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE 
ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT DISPLACEMENT 
TOWARD THE RIGHT OR NORTH. DESPITE THE SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH AND 
THE SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IMPLIED BY THE 18Z 
POSITION...WILL ADJUST THE ENTIRE 120 HR FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT 
AND SLIGHTLY SLOW IT DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE 
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND 
CLOSER...THOUGH STILL ON THE SOUTHERN OR LEFT SIDE...TO THE MIDDLE 
OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK. WILL KEEP KIKA AT 30 KT
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND LOWER TO 25 KT AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL BUT THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
STUBBORNLY KEEPS PROJECTING KIKA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 120 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 10.5N 169.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.7N 171.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 11.1N 174.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.5N 176.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.8N 179.7W    25 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.1N 175.3E    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 12.9N 170.3E    25 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N 165.6E    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER TANABE