WTPA41 PHFO 070838
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER AND THE
CONSENSUS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB CAME IN
AT 2.5...OR 35 KT.  AS A RESULT...ONE-C HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM KIKA.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND THE
PRIMARY QUIKSCAT SOLUTION FROM 0400 UTC DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...AMBIGUITY DATA INDICATE POSSIBLE WESTERLIES
TO CLOSE OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  SSMI AND GOES DATA CERTAINLY
SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. 

KIKA IS MOVING WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR
170W.  THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS FOR INTENSITY...CIMSS SHEAR DATA SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY
SHEAR IMPINGING UPON KIKA.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN RECENT IR IMAGES
WHICH SHOW A RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0248 AND 0340 UTC ALSO SUGGEST A TILTING OF
CENTER WITH HEIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR MAY HINDER
ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT DESPITE ADEQUATE SST VALUES OF 27C.  THE
TRACK KEEPS KIKA NEAR 27C WATER THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN INTO MARGINAL
SST CONDITIONS THROUGH 96 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK INCREASE BEYOND 96 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND HINDER INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS
BUT GENERALLY CONSISTENT BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 10.4N 147.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 10.5N 149.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 10.8N 152.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 11.0N 154.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 11.2N 157.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 12.1N 162.4W    45 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 13.3N 167.6W    45 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 172.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA