WTPA41 PHFO 110851
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2008

CONVECTION AROUND KIKA CONTINUED TO DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. 
PHFO AND JTWC WERE UNABLE TO DETERMINE A DATA T FOR THEIR 2 PM AND 8 
PM OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES...BASING THEIR 1.5 CURRENT INTENSITY ON 
EITHER PATTERN T OR MODEL EXPECTED T. HIGH-RES SCATTEROMETER 
RECEIVED AFTER THE SYNOPTIC HOUR SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 
25 KT ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER...CB HAVE FORMED ONCE 
AGAIN WEST OF THE LLCC SINCE THE SYNOPTIC HOUR AND UW/CIMMS ANALYZED 
35 KT ASSOCIATED WITH KIKA AT 6 PM. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY...REPRESENTING AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO...IS KEPT AT 30 KT.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...TAKING KIKA ON A STEADY 
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE WANTS TO 
INITIALLY MOVE KIKA TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST...MOTION THAT HAS NOT 
VERIFIED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK IS THEREFORE ALTERED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 36 
HOURS...CLOSELY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AFTER 36 HOURS. THE 
FINAL RESULT IS A FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE 
THROUGH 120 HOURS. 

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO 
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE TWO EFFECTS 
LIKELY RESULTING IN A STEADY WEAKENING AT LEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. 
GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK SATELLITE PRESENTATION IT IS TEMPTING TO 
FORECAST SYSTEM DISSIPATION NEAR 48 HOURS...BUT SHIPS INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT KIKA WILL SPUTTER ON AS IT PASSES THE 
DATELINE...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING UNTIL EVENTUALLY FLIRTING WITH 
HURRICANE STATUS AT 120 HOURS. GFDL FORECASTS STEADY INTENSITY NEAR 
30 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS...THEN RAPID WEAKENING. WE WILL WEAKEN KIKA 
TO 25 KT AT 24 HOURS...THEN KEEP IT ALIVE AT THAT INTENSITY THROUGH 
120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 10.0N 166.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 10.2N 168.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 10.6N 171.1W    25 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 11.2N 174.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 11.7N 177.3W    25 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 12.3N 177.5E    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 12.9N 172.4E    25 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 14.3N 167.7E    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL