WTPA41 PHFO 110239
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2008

KIKA HAS BECOME RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH 
ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE 0000 UTC 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC/JTWC/SAB ARE ALL RUNNING AT 
1.5. THUS WE ARE DOWNGRADING KIKA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 
THIS PACKAGE. A FAIRLY RECENT ASCT PASS DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY 
OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED I COULD FIND WAS 
20 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. HAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR 
THIS PACKAGE BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.

AFTER A BIT OF A JOG TO THE SOUTH LAST NIGHT...THE PRESENT MOTION 
APPEARS TO BE 280 DEGREES AT AROUND 14 KT. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS 
MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK 
PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP 
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED 
FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST PACKAGE. 

ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA 
REMAINS AT AROUND 6 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE SHEAR 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER 36 HOURS THE 
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND KIKA. THE AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT WILL BE INCREASING BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT SINCE KIKA IS SUCH A 
SMALL SYSTEM THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY WIN OUT RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM 
REMAINING AS IS OR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THIS IS IN CONSENSUS OF MOST 
OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
INTENSIFY KIKA TO 50 KT IN 72 HOURS AND UP TO 65 KT BY 120 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 10.2N 164.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 10.5N 167.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 11.0N 169.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 11.5N 172.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 12.0N 175.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 13.0N 178.9E    30 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 13.9N 173.8E    25 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 14.7N 169.0E    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE