WTPA41 PHFO 101438
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008

OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 1200 UTC FROM PHFO AND JTWC HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT FOR KIKA. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS SHOWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SO I
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
 
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KIKA ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING KIKA TO MOVE NORTH OF WEST...THE 1200 UTC
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT KIKA HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TRACKING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. I HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE TRACK. I HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 12 HOURS. THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KIKA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED VERY RAPIDLY.
I HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES. SINCE KIKA HAS
NOT RESPONDED AS EXPECTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...MY CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER LOW.
 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z  9.8N 162.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z  9.9N 163.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 10.2N 166.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 10.6N 168.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 11.1N 170.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 12.2N 176.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 12.9N 178.3E    35 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 13.2N 173.1E    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON