WTPA41 PHFO 100843
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC SHOWS MORE DEEP CONVECTION THAN 6
HOURS EARLIER. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 0600 UTC ALL HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 35 KT. SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS I WOULD NOT WANT TO DROP THE
INTENSITY NOW.

THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE FIXES WERE ALL FARTHER SOUTH THAN 6 HOURS AGO
AND SUGGEST A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE
TRACK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING KIKA
MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST. THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE SINCE
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. I HAVE CONTINUED THIS GENERAL
TREND...KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
TRACK CONSENSUS. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN
LIGHTER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. I
HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. KIKA HAS NOT ALWAYS RESPONDED AS EXPECTED
TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT TOO HIGH.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 10.0N 160.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 10.1N 162.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 10.6N 165.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 11.1N 168.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 11.6N 171.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 12.3N 176.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 12.8N 177.7E    40 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 13.3N 172.2E    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON