WTPA41 PHFO 100248
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 0000 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE 
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT FROM 
PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE 
AS COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN REAPPEARING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT AND HAS BEEN FAIRLY 
STEADY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE 
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE 
MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A 
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA. 
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. 

ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR OVER KIKA IS AROUND 3 KT 
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALSO KIKA WILL BE MOVING OVER 
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN AREA OF WARMER 
WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE 
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH 
MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 
SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND 60 KT 
WITHIN 120 HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM 
DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 10.4N 159.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 10.7N 161.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 11.1N 164.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 11.5N 167.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 11.9N 169.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 12.7N 175.6W    45 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 13.1N 178.8E    40 KT
120HR VT     15/0000Z 13.3N 173.4E    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE