WTPA41 PHFO 092050 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008 CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 1800 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER KIKA TO LESS THAN 3 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN AREA OF WARMER WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE DECREASE IN SHEAR...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND 55 KT WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM DOWN TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 10.3N 158.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 10.5N 160.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 10.9N 163.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 11.4N 166.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 11.8N 169.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 12.5N 174.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 13.0N 179.5E 40 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 173.9E 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BURKE