WTPA41 PHFO 091442
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH OVERNIGHT. 
THE 1200 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS
WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE
KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/13 HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS...AFTER LAST NIGHT/S DRAMATIC JOG TO THE SOUTH. KIKA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OVER THE COURSE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT TRACKS WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
PACKAGE TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT KIKA HAS GAINED LITTLE LATITUDE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER KIKA...
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...AND IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE 24-72 
HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE 26.5 DEGREE C
ISOTHERM...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. IN THE LATER 
PERIODS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...WHILE AT THE SAME ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
SHEAR AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 10.2N 157.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 10.3N 159.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 10.6N 162.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 10.9N 165.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 11.6N 168.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 12.3N 173.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 12.8N 179.2W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N 175.1E    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD