WTPA41 PHFO 090844 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2008 THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT KIKA EXHIBITED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS HAS CONTINUED THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO WAS 35 KT WHEREAS JTWC AND SAB HAD 30 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...AND A JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT PASS THAT CONTAINED /RAIN-FLAGGED/ 40 KT WINDS...KIKA IS DEEMED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/12KT REMAINS UNCHANGED SINCE MORNING...AS DOES THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS SHEAR HAS BEEN LIGHT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR INTENSIFICATION...YET KIKA HAS NOT DONE SO IN THE 24 HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT KIKA MAY BE IN LINE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER...AS WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND SST ABOVE OR NEAR 26.5 LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...YET WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARGINALLY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 10.1N 156.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 10.4N 158.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 10.8N 161.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 11.2N 163.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 11.6N 166.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 12.4N 170.9W 40 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 13.0N 176.2W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 13.3N 178.4E 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD