WTPA41 PHFO 070228
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED AS INVEST 92C FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
THOUGH STILL SMALL CAN NOW BE CALLED TD ONE-C. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE 2.0 WITH SAB COMING IN AT 2.5. HAVE GONE WITH THE FIRST TWO...
PLACING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT.

TD ONE-C IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT...BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF THE
HIGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OR CHANGE MUCH IN STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE JUST AN
EXTENTION OF ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT...AND FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF A
TIGHT PACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS PRESENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
27 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WARM WATER IS JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN OR EVEN
CAUSE A SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM IN
24 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 10.3N 146.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 10.4N 148.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 10.6N 151.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 10.8N 153.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 11.0N 155.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 11.5N 161.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 12.3N 166.9W    40 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 13.8N 172.2W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG